U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Changing Dynamics of Cross-Border Militancy

Abstract

This study examines the political, strategic, sociological and border-governance aspects that affect the changing security environment and explores the new dynamics of cross-border militancy post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan along the Pakistan-Afghanistan (P/A) border. It also reviews the weaknesses and strengths of Pakistan's border security systems including surveillance, fencing, intelligence-based operations, counterterrorism programs etc. This study will be conducted with a qualitative case-study methodology and a qualitative research design with interpretivist approach at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border-security that started in August 2021. Thematic interpretation and qualitative content analysis are used to examine secondary data. In general, the study applies two theories: The Borderland Security Theory and Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) to explain the interconnection of security environments of Afghanistan and Pakistan along with special challenges faced by socially intertwined border regions. The findings indicate that this resurgence of cross-border violence is not solely and directly responsible for the departure of the U.S. Rather, it was a catalyst that reshaped the securitization structures within the region and created a space for extremist groups to exploit. The Taliban resurgence and the resilience of the TTPs, coupled with the formation and consolidation of militant networks, security lapses, and the lack of cooperation and coordination on security matters between Pakistan and Afghanistan have all contributed to the threat.