From deterrence to disruption: Maritime implications of the US-Iran conflict for security and energy flows through strategic maritime chokepoints

Abstract

The 2026 US-Iran confrontation revealed something important about the Persian Gulf: strategic competition there has moved well beyond traditional naval deterrence. What used to be straightforward transit routes for international commerce have become complex arenas where military signaling, economic pressure, and asymmetric operations all come together. Missile strikes, drone operations, cyber activities, and ongoing threats to commercial shipping have shown how localized maritime incidents can trigger global energy market disruptions and increase risks for international navigation. This article examines how the US-Iran rivalry has fundamentally changed the strategic significance of maritime chokepoints and reshaped the Gulf's regional security architecture. Using a qualitative explanatory case-study approach, the research argues that these waterways increasingly function as instruments of coercive statecraft, with profound implications for freedom of navigation, energy security, maritime insurance costs, and the strategic diversification of global energy supply routes.